Strong optimism among U.S. business leaders is setting the stage for an active 2026, according to JPMorganChase’s annual Business Leaders Outlook survey of small and midsize companies.
Following a year of persistent economic and geopolitical headwinds, business leaders are charting a path forward by pursuing growth opportunities, embracing emerging technologies and, in some cases, forging new strategic partnerships, based on the survey results.
As businesses grow and scale, their financial needs become more complex and their exposure to macroeconomic forces can intensify, shaping both their strategies and outlook.
The survey highlights how these dynamics play out across companies of different sizes. Middle market companies — often more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes — are reporting a rebound in optimism after confidence dipped in June of last year. Small businesses, meanwhile, maintain steady optimism but continue to contend with domestic challenges — especially inflation and wage pressures — with a smaller share citing regulatory uncertainty as a concern.
Against this backdrop, the survey offers an in-depth look at the perspectives of middle market and small business leaders at the start of 2026.
According to the survey results, middle-market companies are kicking off the new year with an upbeat outlook for their businesses, rebounding to nearly the same levels of optimism seen this time last year. Following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, optimism surged, with many anticipating a favorable business environment. By June 2025, however, sentiment shifted amid concerns about political dynamics, tariffs, evolving regulations, and global economic headwinds.
As leaders enter 2026, optimism is recovering, though worries remain. Top concerns include economic uncertainty (49 percent), revenue/sales growth (33 percent), and tariffs and labor (both at 31 percent). While just more than half (51 percent) do not expect a recession in 2026, only 39 percent express optimism about the national economy. Still, leaders are bullish when it comes to their own prospects:
- 71 percent are optimistic about their company’s prospects at the start of this year, compared to 58 percent in June 2025 and 75 percent in January 2025.
- 73 percent project increased revenue, compared to 50 percent in June 2025 and 74 percent in January 2025.
- 48 percent expect to increase headcount, up from 37 percent in June 2025 and 51 percent in January 2025.
“There’s a real sense of momentum across the middle market as business leaders prepare to set ambitious growth plans in motion,” says Melissa Smith, co-head of commercial banking at J.P. Morgan. “Companies are thinking creatively about how to position themselves for the future as they navigate complex macroeconomic factors.”
This growth mindset is reflected in the strategies leaders are prioritizing for 2026, such as introducing new products or services (58 percent), expanding into new domestic and/or international markets (53 percent), pursuing strategic partnerships or investments (49 percent), and/or mergers and acquisitions (39 percent).
For more information on JPMorganChase’s 2026 economic outlook, visit here.
