Small business owners across the U.S. are entering the next 12 months with confidence and optimism despite economic uncertainty and rapid technological change, according to Comerica Bank’s inaugural Small Business Pulse Index.
The national survey of 1,010 small business owners revealed 81 percent expect revenue growth going forward while many are embracing artificial intelligence (AI) with both enthusiasm and caution.
While 41 percent or respondents project modest growth of 1-10 percent, nearly 30 percent expect double-digit increases. The technology sector stands out as the most bullish, while retail, hospitality, and manufacturing — sectors that also report higher concern over tariffs — show more variability.
On the AI front, 45 percent of the surveyed small businesses report using AI tools today, with adoption highest in the technology (64 percent) and professional services (58 percent) sectors. Marketing, content creation, and data analysis are the most valuable applications of AI among adopters.
Yet, AI challenges remain. Mistakes, tech vulnerabilities, and learning curves are the top concerns for both current and prospective AI users.
While AI adoption is growing, so is the conversation around its governance. Although AI users, as a whole are less likely than non-users to support stricter regulation, those in the technology and professional services industries (which lead in both adoption rate and breadth of use) are actually more supportive of increased oversight compared to AI users in other industries — suggesting those most experienced with AI may also be the most attuned to its potential risks.
“Small business owners see the potential of AI, but they also understand the need for responsible oversight,” says Larry Franco, executive vice president and national director of retail and small business banking for Comerica Bank.
Support for stricter AI regulation also varies considerably by age, according to the survey results Whereas younger business owners are more likely to embrace AI with fewer restrictions, older generations show a stronger preference for oversight.
Overall, 42 percent of Gen Z respondents favor tighter regulation, compared to 53 percent of Millennial respondents, 57 percent of Gen X respondents, and 66 percent of Baby Boomer respondents.
Despite concerns, most small business owners responding to the survey remain optimistic about AI’s impact on employment. A total of 64 percent of all small businesses surveyed do not believe AI will replace jobs in their industry within the next five years.
This sentiment is even stronger among those not planning to adopt AI (74 percent), with a majority of current AI users (60 percent) also sharing the same view — indicating a broad confidence in AI as a complement rather than a threat to the workforce.
Other key findings from the first Comerica Small Business Pulse Index include:
Capital Investment (CapEx) Outlook Is Mixed: While 32 percent of the respondents plan to invest up to $100,000 in the next 12 months, 45 percent report no CapEx plans. Technology and construction industries lead in planned investment.
Confidence Is Strong: 83 percent of surveyed small businesses are confident in their future success, especially those with $500,000+ in revenue and/or more than 10 employees.
Inflation Tops the List of Concerns: 23 percent of respondents cite inflation as the most considerable threat to their business, followed by tariffs and cash flow challenges.
“Small businesses are the heartbeat of our communities and local economies,” says Franco. “It’s imperative to be tapped into what’s influencing and impacting small businesses.
“We launched the Comerica Small Business Pulse Index to do exactly that — identify successes and challenges these businesses are facing right now to help a broad group of entities, from financial providers to consumers and other business owners, better know how to serve, support and strengthen small businesses around them.”
Results of the new Comerica survey also reveal small business owners are looking ahead to the next year with confidence and momentum. That confidence is especially pronounced among firms with higher revenues and employee counts. Those in operation for 4-7 years report the highest levels of optimism, outpacing both younger startups and more established firms.
Market outlooks are similarly upbeat, with nearly two-thirds of respondents expecting conditions to improve. Optimism is strongest in the Midwest and South, where 67 percent anticipate better conditions, compared to 56 percent in the Northeast and 60 percent on the West Coast.
Businesses already using AI also are notably more hopeful, with 70 percent predicting improved market conditions versus 53 percent among non-users who have no plan to use AI in the near term. The retail and wholesale sector, however, reports the lowest optimism, likely reflecting early impacts from tariffs. Among the 14 percent who foresee a downturn, concerns about tariffs and government policy are twice as common.
The Comerica Small Business Pulse Index surveyed 1,010 small business owners across the U.S. between Aug. 1-13, 2025. The survey has a margin of error of ±3.1 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
