U.S. light-vehicle sales are expected to reach 16.1 million units in 2026 and 16.4 million by the end of the decade, remaining well below the roughly 17 million annual sales levels that defined the market before the pandemic, according to a forecast by Mobility Global, a Virginia-based a provider of automotive data, intelligence, and forecasting.
Mobility Global’s analysts say affordability remains the single biggest challenge facing consumers, contributing to a fundamentally different market environment.
The U.S. automotive market, the report says, has remained depressed since the pandemic with some of that due to supply chain shortages. But right now, the main reason Mobility Global doesn’t see the market returning to its previous levels is the affordability issue.
“We don’t see the U.S. returning to pre-pandemic levels of volumes,” says Peter Nagle, associate director for Americas demand forecasting at Mobility Global. “Obviously, there is something constraining the market from those 17-million-unit thresholds that we routinely hit back in, say, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.”
Myriad factors have reshaped the automotive landscape in recent years, says Mobility Global. The past year has brought some significant changes to the U.S. regulatory and incentive framework — and in the compressed span of automotive timeframes. As emissions and fuel economy rules were loosened, automakers rewrote product plans almost overnight.
“The resulting wave of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) cancellations may leave some suppliers wary of chasing future BEV programs,” says Eric Anderson, associate director for light vehicle powertrain forecasting. Even so, Mobility Global expects BEV assembly in North America to once again surpass 1 million units in 2027, according to its latest forecast.
The internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids, however, the analysts say, are expected to remain central to the market as consumers continue to weigh cost, convenience, and lifestyle in choosing their next car. Mobility Global forecasts North American assembly of full hybrid electric vehicles (FHEVs) to surpass 3 million units in 2027 — a 25 percent annual increase — with nearly a third of all North American light vehicle assembly expected to be FHEV by 2030.
The report also addresses China’s growing influence on the global automotive landscape. Analysts explore how conditions in China’s domestic market could shape automaker strategies worldwide. They point to a broader industry move toward regionalization and de-globalization.
“The auto industry is moving toward three major regional islands,” said Joe Langley, director of research and analysis at Mobility Global. “North America, Europe, and Asia, and automakers will increasingly have to build where they sell and design for the regions they serve. The difficult part is doing that while costs continue to rise.”
And there is no longer one global recipe for success, Langley adds.
Mobility Global has launched FAST (Forecasting and Simulation Tool) to help identify and assess changes shaping the mobility market. With more than 100 years of history, Mobility Global separated from S&P Global on July 1 and now operates as an independent company focused on the mobility sector.
Discussing the role of FAST, Kristen Balasia, senior vice president of Mobility Global Planning Solutions, notes that organizations are operating in an increasingly uncertain environment.
“We are seeing firsthand that certainty is becoming increasingly rare, and the ability to navigate uncertainty with speed is becoming the most valuable competitive advantage in this market,” she says.
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