Southfield-based information, analytics, and solutions provider IHS Markit has released the latest autonomous vehicle sales forecast, which predicts sales of more than 33 million self-driving cars and trucks globally in 2040. According to the report, the United States will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicle production as early as 2019, with Europe and China expected to begin adding considerable volume from 2021 onward.
IHS Markit adds that the convergence of autonomous driving technology and mobility services like ride-hailing and ridesharing applications is a central driver of early growth. Mobility-as-a-Service is expected to bring autonomous vehicle technology to the masses before individual ownership becomes a reality.
“The first autonomous vehicle volumes — beyond retrofit test vehicles — will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services,” says Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. “Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars.”
IHS Markit also predicts OEMs, suppliers, mobility service providers, and technology companies will contribute “significant ongoing investment” in transportation technology, while dedicated mobility service brands within many automakers may contribute to higher volumes of autonomous vehicles in the forecast. The analysis also reflects partnerships and ecosystems forming around technology and services that will help the industry address challenges as the industry continues to evolve.
“Diversity of choice in personal mobility and autonomous driving technologies are both evolving more quickly than ever, but their convergence will have the greatest impact,” says Jeremy Carlson, principal automotive analyst at IHS Markit. “Autonomous mobility services can deliver newfound personal freedom to the young, old, disabled, and others without reliable transportation for everyday needs, but the benefits don’t have to stop there. Fleet operators in big cities who better understand the lower operational costs of battery electric vehicles are more likely to employ them to drive higher amounts of vehicle and passenger miles traveled.”
Information about the report can be found here.