Kelley Blue Book Predicts New Car Sales to Increase


IRVINE, Calif., — New-vehicle sales expected to reach 13.9 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in June from the 13.8 million unit pace in May, according to Kelley Blue Book, the leading provider of new car and used car information.

Kelley Blue Book’s prediction for June SAAR is well below the 14.5 million unit average pace for the first four months of the year. The daily selling rate will fall to 47,000 units per day, which is 8 percent below the four-year high in May and up 16 percent from June 2011. Despite the predicted decline for June, sales remain strong thanks to a steady flow of demand from consumers in need of a replacement vehicle.

“It’s a buyer’s market right now, with consumers flocking to the Internet and dealerships upon news of low interest rates across the board, ample credit availability for subprime borrowers, attractive cash incentives on vehicles in every category, and compelling new redesigns and introductions,” said Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book. “Although sales are expected to decline from May’s high, the expected drop is just part of the normal seasonal pattern.”

Looking at the rest of 2012, Kelley Blue Book believes SAAR will remain in the mid to high 13 million unit range through summer and then jump above 14 million in the fall, as 2013 models become available and incentive spending increases on 2012 model-year vehicles. Kelley Blue Book expects light-vehicle sales to top 14 million units in 2012, however, looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, there are signs that the current global economic slowdown may curtail future growth, leading to a leveled sales pace in the next six to 12 months.

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