The number of November 2019 new home permits was lower than expected, down 34 percent compared to an upward revised total for October 2019 of 390 permits (originally 348), and is also down 23 percent compared to November 2018, according to a new report from the Home Builders Association of Southeastern Michigan.
A total of 259 single-family permits were issued in Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne counties. This is 40 percent below the association’s prediction of 362 single-family home permits for November.
“Based purely on economic factors, 2019 overall – and November as the latest example – has significantly underperformed when it comes to new single-family home permit activity,” says Michael Stoskopf, CEO of the association.
“I’m reasonably certain that the lower than expected new home permit activity is the result of a combination of external factors throughout the year, the latest being the GM strike (now resolved) and related uncertainty as UAW negotiations (now completed) moved to Ford and FCA. That, combined with the expected seasonal slowdown, further magnifies November’s result.”
The average single-family permit value increased 3 percent from October 2019 to $297,023, a decrease of 0.9 percent from the previous year.
Multi-family housing permits continued their positive trend for the year, totaling 427 permits in November, bringing the year-to-date total to 2,345, up 98 percent over 2018’s 1,184.
Positive economic factors, including low 30-year fixed mortgage rates and low crude oil prices, remain bright spots.
The average single-family home sale price decreased 0.6 percent from October 2019 to $225,248. This is a 6.5 percent increase from November 2018.
Those employed and the workforce stayed flat, with a month-over-month decrease of 0.3 percent in the number of people employed to 1,939,608. This is up 1.2 percent from the previous year. The workforce grew 0.1 percent month-over-month and 1.4 percent year-over-year to 2,032,154.
North American vehicle production dropped 6.3 percent from the previous month and 8 percent from the previous year to 1,306,695 units.
Crude oil price per barrel decreased 6.8 percent from October 2019 and 21.7 percent from November 2018 to $54.16.