According to the latest HBA and Carter Lumber Southeastern Michigan Residential Building Activity Report compiled by the Home Builders Association of Southeastern Michigan (HBA) in Bingham Farms, a total of 105 single-family home permits were issued in Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne counties in December 2022.
Excluding the pandemic, this is the lowest monthly total since February 2010, when 104 permits were issued.
For the year, 3,511 SFH permits were issued, marking the lowest annual total since 2011, which saw 2,540 issued. For the second consecutive year, the Top 3 builders in the four-county area were: Pulte Homes at452, Lombardo Homes at 355, and M/I Homes of Michigan at 230.
From a county perspective, Oakland finished with 1,609 permits, followed by Macomb with 1,101, Wayne with 652, and St. Clair with 149. Finally, the Top 5 municipalities were: Macomb Township at 275, Shelby Township at 250, Lyon Township at 227, Canton Township at 173, and Independence Township at 170.
For the second consecutive year, all four counties saw multi-family permits issued with Wayne leading the way with 1,202, followed by Oakland with 642, Macomb with 341, and St. Clair with 32. The Top 5 municipalities were: Detroit with 878, Sterling Heights with 271, Canton Township with 240, Rochester Hills with 165, and Farmington Hills with 152.
Mortgage rates likely will be the biggest factor contributing to single-family home permit performance. While the 30-year fixed rate, plus points, again retreated in December to 7.32 percent, it remains up by 3.62 basis points compared to December 2021, or 3.7 percent. While expected to slow, the Federal Reserve is likely to implement additional rate increases.
Other econometric factors the HBA uses for its forecasts show generally negative results. The number of those employed dropped by a half percent month-over-month and was stagnant year-over-year. The available workforce dropped by nearly a whole percent month-over-month, and 1.4 percent year-over-year.
North American vehicle production fell 15.9 percent on the month and gained only 1.2 percent on the year. The crude oil price per barrel did fall 7.3 percent month-over-month but is still up 4.8 percent year-over-year.
The average sale price of and existing single-family home was down 7.3 percent month-over-month and 3.8 percent year-over-year, while the price of a new permit is down 19.2 percent on the month and up 22 percent on the year.
