More than 11.2 million light vehicles equipped with some form of vehicle-to-everything system will be produced globally in 2024, representing 12 percent of the light-vehicle fleet, according to research and forecasts from IHS Markit, a business information provider that has an office in Southfield.
It is expected that production of light vehicles equipped with V2X systems will be just under 15,000 units in 2019 and grow at a compound annual growth rate of 277.5 percent in 2024.
The forecasts from IHS Markit analyze technology deployment, monitor OEM sourcing strategies, and identify new business opportunities through a six-year forecast calendar of new programs. The data represents production forecasts of factory-installed telematics systems in new light vehicles.
A driving force for the implementation of enhanced connectivity is the demand for safer roads. The introduction of V2X is expected to revolutionize the way people drive and the entire transportation system.
Dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) solutions lead the global automotive V2X market in the near term, as it offers proven technology with chips for system implementation readily available from several semiconductor companies. By 2020, overall deployment numbers are expected to still be relatively low, but cellular V2X solutions will have surpassed DSRC-based solutions due to expected rapid deployment in China.
China is expected to lead the global V2X market with an estimated 629,000 light vehicles produced in the region equipped with cellular V2X technology in 2020, and the country is expected to stay in the lead through 2024. Europe is expected to be the second largest market, but with reliance mostly on DSRC-based solutions and about 411,000 light vehicles produced in 2020. By 2023, the continent is expected to produce a significant number of cellular V2X-based vehicles.
Japan and Korea will also achieve noticeable deployments of DSRC-based solutions by 2021, showing a total of more than 61,000 of the light vehicles produced between the two. In the North American market, cellular V2X-equipped cars is also expected to start in 2021, with just under 56,000 vehicles produced that year. India isn’t expected to see any type of V2X production in vehicles until 2023, while the South American region falls outside of the forecast period – 2017-2024 – altogether.
“DSRC is a well-proven technology, but early testing of C-V2X based solutions are now being done by several companies,” says Anna Buettner, connected car principal analyst at IHS Markit. “C-V2X is gaining market momentum quickly in most regions and is likely to become the winning technology of choice over time, while a combined approach, in which both technologies are used, is also a real possibility in the near term while the technology is still developing.”
Regulations on 5G are developing. The most recent vote by the European Commission enables future 5G deployment, which would support cellular V2X in automotive. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has delayed a vote to review a key technology that would pave the way for DSRC in the U.S.
“While regulatory bodies can greatly influence the fate and speed of deployment of V2X technologies, the momentum of V2X technology development will not be slowed down at the OEM and supplier level. This technology is here to stay,” says Buettner.
IHS Markit is headquartered in London.