Full-year 2023 U.S. auto sales, based on vehicle counts by Kelley Blue Book, are forecast to finish near 15.5 million units, an increase of 11.6 percent from 13.9 million in 2022, according to a report from Cox Automotive, an automotive services and technology provider in Atlanta.
New-vehicle sales have been stronger and more consistent than expected throughout 2023, the report says. The new-vehicle market has been supported by growing deliveries, improving supply levels, and higher incentives.
Large year-over-year gains in 2023 have been delivered by Honda, Nissan, General Motors Co., and Tesla. The Hyundai Motor Group, with Genesis, Hyundai, and Kia brands, had a strong year in the U.S. market, growing sales by more than 12 percent and passing Stellantis to take the fourth spot in overall U.S. sales, behind Ford Motor Co. Of all major automakers, Stellantis is the only one expected to post lower year-over-year sales, as the company pursues a strategy of lower volume and higher revenue per sales.
According to the forecast, sales volume in December is expected to rise 6.2 percent over December 2022. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to finish near 15.1 million in December. This SAAR is 1.6 million higher compared to last year’s pace. It reflects a slight decline, however, from last month’s 15.3 million level and matches the lowest SAAR of the year, which was recorded in May.
“December is generally a strong month for new-vehicle sales as holiday shoppers look for year-end deals, and this year will be no exception,” says Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “With supply much higher now and incentives higher as well, this December is expected to finish significantly better than last year. But high vehicle prices and high interest rates remain the industry’s Grinch right now, and that trend will continue into next year.”
New-vehicle inventory volume was 2.56 million at the start of December, higher by more than 900,000 units from one year ago. Meanwhile, days’ supply had climbed to 71, up from 60 at the start of November and more than 17 days higher than December 2022. At the beginning of December, new-vehicle days’ supply is closer to the pre-pandemic norm than in the last several years.
Fleet sales are expected to rise in December after experiencing two months of pull-back in commercial and rental vehicle sales. The lower fleet volume was particularly affected by big drops in fleet sales from the Detroit Three due to the UAW strike.
“With the strike now in the rearview mirror, December is expected to show a return to stronger fleet activity, and these sales could have a big impact on the month’s final tally,” Chesbrough says.
Other findings in the forecast:
- New auto sales in Q4 will be down 4.2 percent compared to Q4 2022.
- GM retains the sales title over Toyota in 2023 while Hyundai Motor Group jumps past Stellantis.
- Honda sees the largest year-over-year sales increase of the major manufacturers.
As the auto market drives into 2024, the Cox Automotive Economic and Industry Insights team says it anticipates weak economic growth, higher new-vehicle inventories, and an end to the seller’s market.
Overall, the team expects 2024 to be the best year for car buyers since the pandemic.
