Comerica Economist Forecasts More Jobs in April After Weak March


Although there were fewer new U.S. jobs added in March than expected, economists anticipate a strong April jobs report, according to a U.S. Economic Update report released by Comerica Bank, a company founded in Detroit that operates significant operations in Michigan, though it has its headquarters in Dallas.

According to Comerica Bank economist Robert Dye, the drop in employment in March was expected.

“We view the March jobs data as a typical correction following a string of very impressive monthly job gains,” Dye says. “Over the 12 months ending in February this year, average monthly job growth for the U.S. was a robust 269,000 jobs per month, well beyond consensus expectations of a year ago. It’s normal to see a weak month of job growth after a string of very strong months.”

Dye says he expects to see a stronger April jobs report “consistent with improving household finances.”

Auto sales dropped from December through February, although sales did rebound in March to a 17.2 million-unit rate for the month.

While new home sales were stagnant through 2014, sales “surged to a 539,000 unit annual rate in February,” says Dye.

Dye says oil prices remain a “source of uncertainty for the U.S. economy.” There’s limited storage capacity for crude oil, which will result in a decrease in oil prices. He says the decrease in prices implies further downside potential for drilling activity. Dye expects oil production to decline through the second half this year, resetting the oil market in 2016.